- 特朗普会在2027年前辞职吗？2¢2%
Traders assign a 97.8% implied probability to Donald Trump completing 2026 without resigning or facing removal, reflecting the absence of active impeachment proceedings, sustained 25th Amendment invocations, or public signals of voluntary departure during his second term. Constitutional thresholds for Senate conviction or cabinet-driven incapacity remain high, and no verified health or incapacity developments have emerged to alter this assessment. Upcoming November 2026 midterms could shift congressional dynamics, yet historical patterns show limited immediate impact on early exits. Realistic scenarios that might still move odds include acute medical events, sustained bipartisan support for removal following major scandals, or unforeseen leadership decisions post-election.
规则
如果美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在 2026年12月31日, 23:59 ET 前宣布他已辞职或将辞去总统职务，该市场将结算为“是”。否则，此市场将以“否”结算。 如果唐纳德·特朗普已不可能辞职或宣布辞职（例如因其他原因被免职等），该市场将立即结算为“否”。 该市场要结算为“是”，只需要特朗普宣布他已辞职或将辞职。他是否真的辞职，不会影响此市场的结算。 此市场结算的主要依据将是美国联邦政府的官方信息；不过，也会采用可信报道所形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。