- 特朗普会在2027年之前支持 JD·万斯竞选总统吗？5¢5%
President Donald Trump’s recent public refusal to discuss or commit to endorsing Vice President JD Vance for the 2028 Republican nomination has reinforced trader expectations that no early endorsement will occur before 2027. In an October 20 Oval Office exchange, Trump described Vance as talented and capable but stated the two had never discussed the topic, calling it premature and directing focus to the November midterms. Vance has voiced confidence that Trump would eventually back him if he runs, while acknowledging the possibility of a contested primary and the value of allowing candidates to compete independently. Trump has previously labeled Vance his “most likely” heir apparent yet has also highlighted other figures such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio, maintaining flexibility ahead of the 2028 cycle. These signals align with the 94.9% implied probability on “No.”
规则
如果唐纳德·特朗普在 2026年12月31日 23:59 ET 或之前，公开支持 JD Vance 竞选 2028 年美国总统大选或该次选举的共和党初选，或宣布他会投票给 JD Vance，本市场将判定为“是”。否则，本市场将判定为“否”。 如果唐纳德·特朗普宣布他会投票给另一位候选人，或支持另一位候选人竞选 2028 年美国总统大选或该次选举的共和党初选，本市场将立即判定为“否”。 这个市场的结算来源将是唐纳德·特朗普或其代表之一的官方信息，或可信报道对特朗普支持某人的一致认定。
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