- Tesla 会在12月31日之前于加州推出无人出租车吗？4¢4%
Tesla's lack of California driverless permits from the DMV and CPUC drives the 95% market-implied odds against a robotaxi launch by year-end. The company operates only supervised rides with a safety driver in the Bay Area under a basic charter-party carrier permit, while holding no autonomous vehicle testing or deployment approvals and having submitted negligible test miles for regulatory credit. Regulators distinguish clearly between Level 2 Full Self-Driving and true unsupervised operation, and a new state law adds emergency-response requirements that take effect later. Tesla continues expanding unsupervised service in Texas and Florida metros instead, with customer unsupervised FSD now targeted for Q2 2027. An unexpected fast-track approval in the remaining weeks remains possible but faces substantial procedural and data hurdles.
规则
如果 Tesla 最迟于 2026年12月31日 23:59 ET 在加利福尼亚州公开推出自动驾驶出租车服务，此市场将结算为“是”。否则，本市场将以“否”结算。 任何面向公众提供、且运行时没有人类驾驶员主动控制车辆的出租车服务均计入，不论是否要求会员资格或存在其他财务限制。 仅限 Tesla 员工或无法向公众开放的有限测试群体使用的服务不符合条件。 本市场将根据可信报道形成的共识进行判定。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。