- 到2026年12月31日，俄罗斯会占领利曼吗？35¢
- 到2026年9月30日，俄罗斯会占领利曼吗？8¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png Train Station Location in Lyman: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg Lyman Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Russian forces have intensified ground assaults along the Lyman axis in Donetsk Oblast throughout 2026 as part of broader efforts to approach the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk fortified area, known as the Fortress Belt. Multiple waves of attacks near Drobysheve and eastern Lyman outskirts have occurred, including large mechanized probes in March, yet independent assessments such as ISW maps show no confirmed Russian entry into Lyman municipality or the key railroad station through late August. Ukrainian defenses, supported by drones, artillery, and terrain advantages, have repelled advances, while Russian units face fuel shortages, high casualties, and incremental gains measured in square kilometers per month across the front. Trader positioning reflects these stalled momentum trends and the low likelihood of a rapid breakthrough before late-2026 resolution windows.