- Reza Pahlavi 会在 12月31日 前进入伊朗吗？2¢2%
Reza Pahlavi remains in exile and has no verified path or timeline for entering Iran, with trader consensus reflecting the Islamic Republic’s resilience amid ongoing protests, executions, and internal security control. As of early November 2026, Pahlavi conducted high-profile meetings in the Belgian Parliament and European Parliament, reiterating calls to end international appeasement, expand sanctions on regime networks, and support a secular democratic transition while stating readiness to return “at the first possible opportunity.” Recent unrest and leadership shifts, including the earlier death of Supreme Leader Khamenei, have not produced regime collapse or domestic conditions enabling safe entry. Structural barriers include fragmented opposition, lack of broad internal endorsement, and the regime’s demonstrated ability to suppress dissent, keeping implied probabilities for entry by year-end near 2 percent despite Pahlavi’s public positioning as a transitional figure.
规则
如果 Reza Pahlavi 在市场创建后、2026年12月31日 23:59 ET 之前访问伊朗，则该市场将结算为“是”。否则，本市场将以“否”结算。 就本市场而言，“访问”定义为 Reza Pahlavi 亲自进入伊朗陆地领土。在本市场的时间范围内，Reza Pahlavi 是否进入伊朗领空或海域，不会影响市场作出肯定结算。 本市场结算的主要依据将是可信报道形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。