- María Corina Machado 会在 10月31日 前进入委内瑞拉吗？9¢9%
- María Corina Machado 会在 12月31日 前进入委内瑞拉吗？33¢33%
María Corina Machado remains in exile in Panama after leaving Venezuela in December 2025, with at least seven documented attempts to return by air and sea blocked since then, including multiple efforts in September 2026 via routes through Aruba and Curaçao that faced cancellations and denied permissions. The interim government under Delcy Rodríguez, installed after the U.S. ouster of Nicolás Maduro in January 2026, controls entry points and has shown reluctance tied to Machado’s strong polling lead and opposition support. Recent opposition alliance reaffirmation of her leadership on October 18 and calls for protests demanding an election date and her return have not altered access barriers, while U.S.-backed transition talks proceed without her direct role. Traders price a low probability of entry by year-end deadlines due to these repeated institutional and diplomatic constraints, with any shift likely hinging on negotiation outcomes or policy changes in the coming months.
规则
如果 María Corina Machado 在市场创建后至 2026年12月31日, 23:59 ET 期间访问 Venezuela，则该市场将判定为“是”。否则，本市场将以“否”结算。 就本市场而言，“访问”指 María Corina Machado 亲自进入委内瑞拉的陆地领土。在本市场的时间范围内，María Corina Machado 是否进入委内瑞拉领空或海洋领土，均不会影响肯定结果。 本市场结算的主要依据将是可信报道形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。