- 中国会在 2027年6月30日 之前入侵台湾吗？5¢5%
Taiwan's assessment of over 50 Chinese naval and coast guard vessels operating across regional waters in late October, including the Liaoning carrier group, underscores continued gray-zone pressure and hybrid tactics rather than imminent invasion preparations. US and Taiwanese intelligence assessments indicate the People's Liberation Army lacks sufficient amphibious, logistical, and air-sea superiority capabilities for a full-scale operation in the near term, with official reports emphasizing capacity-building toward later windows like 2030. Joint US-Japan exercises, anti-ship missile deployments, and alliance deterrence further elevate the costs of military action. Trader consensus at 95.5% against an invasion by June 2027 reflects these structural barriers and the preference for coercive diplomacy over conflict. Scenarios that could still shift probabilities include sudden miscalculation during exercises, leadership-driven policy reversal in Beijing, or rapid capability breakthroughs.
规则
如果中国在2027年6月30日 23:59 ET之前发动旨在控制中华民国（台湾）任何部分的军事攻势，本市场将判定为“是”。否则，本市场将以“否”结算。 中华民国管辖下的领土，包括任何有人居住的岛屿，均符合条件；但无人居住的岛屿不符合条件。 本市场的结算依据将是中国、台湾、联合国或联合国安全理事会任何常任理事国的官方确认；但也会采用可信报道的一致共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。