- Apple会在2026年向CXMT购买内存芯片吗？21¢21%
Strong US political, regulatory, and supply constraints make a 2026 Apple-CXMT deal unlikely despite testing and memory shortages. Apple began qualifying CXMT DRAM in mid-2026 for potential limited use in China-market iPhones and MacBooks, driven by AI-fueled DRAM shortages that raised prices and prompted Apple price hikes on Macs and iPads. CXMT, China’s leading DRAM producer with roughly 10-11% global wafer share, offers off-the-shelf LPDDR5X and similar parts, but US rules bar custom co-design or significant tech transfer. The company sits on the Pentagon’s 1260H Chinese military companies list, triggering bipartisan Senate opposition and explicit Trump administration resistance from Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. CXMT’s fabs ran near 95% utilization in 2026 with output largely pre-allocated to domestic buyers such as Huawei, Xiaomi, and ByteDance through at least 2027, leaving minimal capacity for new international customers. Reported pricing has been comparable to or above Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron levels, removing the cost incentive. While HP and Acer have used CXMT parts in some non-US laptops, Apple has not announced any purchase or supply agreement as of late October 2026, and new CEO John Ternus has only kept options open without committing. These barriers—regulatory approval uncertainty, capacity limits, and export restrictions—explain trader consensus favoring “No” at 79.5% implied probability. Key near-term catalysts include any White House policy shift or confirmed qualification results, but year-end timing reduces the chance of meaningful 2026 volume.
规则
据《金融时报》报道，Apple 已向美国政府申请批准，计划从长鑫存储（ChangXin Memory Technologies，CXMT）采购存储芯片。您可以在此阅读更多相关信息：https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1。 如果 Apple 或该公司的官方代表在 2026年12月31日 ET 之前宣布将使用、购买或采购 CXMT 的存储芯片，本市场将判定为“是”。否则，本市场将以“否”结算。 在本市场期限内发布的符合条件的公告，即足以判定为“是”，无论 CXMT 此后是否向 Apple 供货，也无论何时供货。 如果另有确认表明 Apple 在 2026年12月31日、23:59 ET 之前已向 CXMT 购买任何产品或组件、同意购买、签订相关供货协议，或开始向其采购，本市场也将判定为“是”。 本市场判定的主要依据将是 Apple 和／或其官方代表发布的官方信息；不过，也会参考可信报道形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。