- 到2026年9月30日，是否会有任何AI模型达到1520的总竞技场分数？100¢100%
- 到2026年9月30日，是否会有任何AI模型达到1510的总竞技场分数？100¢100%
- 到2026年9月30日，是否会有任何AI模型达到1530的综合竞技场评分？100¢100%
- 在2026年9月30日之前，是否会有任何AI模型达到1550的整体竞技场分数？0¢0%
- 到2026年9月30日，是否会有任何AI模型达到1540的整体竞技场分数？0¢0%
Google’s late-September release of Gemini 4 Argon (High) drove the sharpest recent gains, claiming the top LMArena Overall Text Arena spot at roughly 1525–1533 Elo with strong showings across coding, instruction following, and creative tasks. Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5.5 (High) and Fable 5.1 variants followed closely at 1505–1512, while OpenAI’s GPT-6 Sol and Astra models posted competitive but slightly lower marks after efficiency-focused updates. These frontier releases, combined with rapid leaderboard updates through September 30, shaped trader views on whether any model would clear the market’s implied score threshold by the deadline. Ongoing competition among Google DeepMind, Anthropic, and OpenAI, plus incremental gains from Qwen and Kimi variants, kept probabilities fluid until final votes were tallied.
规则
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".