- 阿尔伯塔会加入美国吗？2¢2%
Recent voter rejection of Alberta's independence pathway in the October 19, 2026, referendum, with roughly 75 percent opposing any further process, has reinforced the near-certain trader consensus against the province joining the United States. Canadian constitutional requirements, including Supreme Court precedents on secession negotiations with the federal government and other provinces, create prohibitive legal barriers with no established mechanism for U.S. annexation. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has pledged to honor the result and pursue greater autonomy only within Canada, while broader national unity efforts under Prime Minister Mark Carney amid U.S. trade tensions have further diminished separatist momentum. Traders assign minimal weight to fringe external interest from U.S. figures, viewing it as insufficient to overcome these structural obstacles. Only unprecedented developments such as a full Canadian constitutional crisis or dissolution could plausibly reopen the question.
规则
如果在 2026年12月31日, 23:59 ET 前正式宣布 Alberta 将归美国主权管辖，或 Alberta 正式归美国主权管辖，本市场将判定为“是”。否则，本市场将判定为“否”。 主权的定义是：将截至 2026年2月6日 的 Alberta 领土大部分（目前是加拿大的一个省）移交至美国的正式治理或管辖之下，无论其在美国体制内被归类为州、领地或其他类别。 如果美国和加拿大在本市场期限内正式宣布 Alberta 将归美国主权管辖，即符合条件，即使主权尚未实际移交亦然。只有正式协议或行动的公告（例如经批准的条约、已签署的法律等）才会计入；单纯的提议、谈判或社交媒体帖子均不计入。 本市场的结算依据将是美国、加拿大和 Alberta 政府的官方信息；但可信报道形成共识并确认 Alberta 已归美国主权管辖，也符合结算条件。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。