- AI会在2027年前被控犯罪吗？4¢4%
Traders assign a 95.7% implied probability to no AI being charged with a crime before 2027 primarily because existing legal frameworks hold developers, companies, or users liable rather than treating artificial intelligence systems as autonomous legal persons. No regulatory filings, court rulings, or official announcements have advanced criminal charges against models or agents in the past year, and the brief window remaining through 2026 leaves little room for legislative or judicial shifts. Strong trader consensus reflects the absence of demonstrated AI agency that meets criminal intent standards, alongside historical patterns where liability stays with human actors. Realistic scenarios that could still alter the outcome include an unprecedented regulatory intervention or reinterpretation of existing statutes in response to a high-profile incident, though such changes typically require extended deliberation.
规则
如果美国任何联邦或州级司法管辖区在 2026年12月31日 23:59 ET 前正式起诉任何 AI 或 LLM，或以其他方式宣布对其提出刑事起诉，本市场将判定为“是”。否则，此市场将判定为“否”。 就本市场而言，哥伦比亚特区以及任何州的任何县、市或其他下级行政区均纳入“州”的定义。仅对 AI 或大型语言模型背后的公司或组织提出指控或起诉并不足够。指控或起诉必须针对 AI 或 LLM 本身。 本市场的主要判定依据为美国政府来源的官方信息；不过，也会参考可信报道的广泛共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。