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Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
United Russia maintains a commanding position in trader assessments for securing the most seats in the September 18–20, 2026 State Duma election, reflecting its status as the incumbent party with extensive administrative resources, recent congress approval of a national program emphasizing wages, infrastructure, and family support, and inclusion of war veterans on candidate lists. Polls from state-affiliated firms show the party ahead by wide margins, while New People trails as the next-closest systemic option amid limited competition. Other registered parties, including LDPR and KPRF, face structural barriers under Russia's mixed electoral system that favors established players. Recent leadership restructuring within United Russia and the exclusion of non-systemic challengers have further consolidated its outlook, with no major shifts reported in the past month.