- 美国会在2027年之前接管巴拿马运河吗？3¢3%
Recent U.S. diplomatic pressure has prompted Panama to address concerns over foreign influence at canal terminals through domestic legal processes, including a Supreme Court ruling annulling CK Hutchison’s concessions and subsequent government seizure of the Balboa and Cristóbal ports for temporary operation by Maersk and MSC units. Panama has also offered priority transit for U.S. warships and engaged directly with U.S. officials on treaty compliance. These steps have reduced perceived Chinese leverage without altering Panamanian sovereignty over the waterway, which has operated under the Panama Canal Authority since 1999. Traders assign a 96.5% probability to “No” because any unilateral U.S. assertion of control would face substantial treaty, alliance, and economic barriers, though escalation risks remain if bilateral accommodations collapse before the 2027 resolution date.
规则
如果巴拿马运河在 2026年12月31日 23:59 ET 前由美国控制，本市场将判定为“是”。否则，本市场将判定为“否”。 就本市场而言，美国控制是指美国通过外交协议、军事行动或任何其他方式，取得对运河的主要运营权。 美国和巴拿马正式宣布巴拿马运河将由美国控制，即符合条件，即使实际控制权尚未移交亦然。只有正式协议或行动的公告（例如行政命令、已签署的立法等）才会计入；仅在社交媒体发布帖子则不计入。 本市场的判定依据将是美国政府和巴拿马政府的官方信息；不过，可信报道形成共识并确认巴拿马运河已处于美国主权之下，也符合判定条件。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。