- 到2026年12月31日之前会有美国银行倒闭吗？85¢
US bank failure by December 31, 2026? With six FDIC-insured institutions already closed in 2026—totaling roughly $1.45 billion in assets, led by Nano Banc’s $736 million September failure—the market’s 55% implied probability for “No” reflects the banking sector’s overall resilience despite elevated small-bank stress. The FDIC’s problem-bank list rose to 52 institutions (1.1% of supervised banks) with $66.3 billion in assets, driven by commercial real estate delinquencies and higher-for-longer rates, yet this remains well below historical crisis levels. Large banks passed the 2026 DFAST stress tests with only a 1.6 percentage point aggregate CET1 decline to 11.2%, enabling increased capital returns, while industry net income reached $90.1 billion in Q2 and capital/liquidity metrics stayed strong. With just 2.5 months left and failures occurring at irregular intervals, traders price limited near-term resolution risk absent a sharp deterioration in CRE or liquidity conditions.
规则
如果在本市场创建至所列日期 23:59 ET 期间，任何美国银行倒闭，本市场将判定为“是”（依据 FDIC 的“Failed Bank List”）。否则，本市场将以“否”结算。 若要使本市场判定为“是”，FDIC 所列的银行关闭日期必须在本市场上文规定的时间范围内。如果本市场时间范围内可能有银行倒闭，而 FDIC 的“Failed Bank List”尚未更新，本市场可能会保持开放，以便等待名单更新。 本市场的主要判定来源是 Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC)，具体而言是此处提供的“Failed Bank List”：https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/；不过，FDIC 和政府机构发布的其他官方声明也足以作为依据。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。