- 在2026年西班牙大选中，工人社会党（PSOE）会获得第二多的席位吗？78¢78%
- PP会在2026年西班牙大选中获得第二多席位吗？17¢17%
- Vox会在2026年西班牙大选中赢得第二多席位吗？6¢6%
- 在2026年西班牙大选中，广泛阵线（FA）会获得第二多席位吗？5¢5%
- 在2026年西班牙大选中，Podemos会赢得第二多的席位吗？1¢1%
Recent polling averages show the PP maintaining a steady 4–6 point lead over the PSOE ahead of the November 29 snap election, positioning the Socialists as the consensus second-place finisher. Traders have assigned the PSOE an 83.5% implied probability for that outcome, well ahead of the PP at 13% and smaller parties including Vox at 8% and Broad Front at 9%. This reflects the PSOE’s consistent second-place standing in surveys since the election call, despite its reduced vote share compared with 2023. The PP’s advantage has narrowed only marginally in the past month, while Vox has gained ground but remains projected behind the PSOE in seat forecasts. Late shifts in turnout among regional or progressive voters could still affect final placement.
规则
Legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the Congress of Deputies of Spain as a result of this election. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Parties will be ranked by the number of seats won by their electoral lists (candidaturas) nationwide in this election, attributed as set out below. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by their lists nationwide, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking. Seats and votes will be attributed according to the electoral list on which they were obtained, as reported in the official results, regardless of the party membership of individual candidates. Lists will be attributed as follows: PSOE: lists of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party, including the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) lists in Catalonia. PP: lists of the People's Party, including the joint UPN–PP list in Navarre. Broad Front (FA): all Broad Front lists, including Catalunya en Comú in Catalonia, Compromís–Valencian Front in the Valencian Community, and Canarian People’s Unity (UPC) in the Canary Islands. ERC: Republican Left of Catalonia lists, including the joint ERC–Podem lists in Catalonia. Podemos: only lists presented by Podemos on its own. CCa: Canarian Coalition lists, including the joint CCa–1º CAN lists in the Canary Islands. Any other list will be attributed to the party or coalition that presents it, as named in the official proclamation of candidacies. Electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior (https://infoelectoral.interior.gob.es/).