- 绿党获得的所有有效第二选票会少于3%吗？3¢
- 绿党在所有有效第二选票中会获得3%到5%之间的票数吗？50¢
- 绿党获得的所有有效第二选票会在5%到7%之间吗？43¢
- Grüne能获得至少7%的有效第二选票吗？8¢
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by Grüne in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Recent polls for the September 6, 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election place Bündnis 90/Die Grünen near or at the 5% electoral threshold, with August surveys from INSA, Infratest dimap, and pollytix showing results clustered between 4% and 5%. This positioning drives the tight market split between 3-5% and 5-7% outcomes, as small shifts in Zweitstimmen can determine entry and redistribute seats among parties clearing the hurdle. The AfD’s consistent lead above 40% amplifies the stakes, with campaign emphasis on tactical voting to bolster smaller parties like the Greens and SPD and prevent an absolute AfD majority. Stable polling trends over recent months, combined with the party’s focus on climate policy and mobility without major new catalysts, sustain the uncertainty until final turnout and late voter shifts materialize.