- 甲骨文在2026年12月31日之前被穆迪或标普降级为垃圾级吗？20¢
- 甲骨文会在2027年6月30日前被穆迪或标普降级为垃圾级吗？32¢
Oracle’s credit standing sits at the edge of investment grade due to its aggressive AI infrastructure buildout, with S&P holding the company at BBB- (stable outlook) after the July 2026 downgrade and Moody’s at Baa2 with a negative outlook. Heavy capital spending on data centers and cloud capacity—exceeding $75 billion trailing twelve months and guided near $90–95 billion for fiscal 2027—has driven leverage near 4x and sustained negative free cash flow, even as remaining performance obligations reached $664 billion and cloud infrastructure revenue grew over 120 percent year-over-year. Recent quarterly results showed modestly better cash burn than expected alongside continued backlog expansion, yet CDS spreads and bond yields remain elevated. Further cuts hinge on whether leverage stays below agency thresholds and AI contracts convert to positive operating cash flow by fiscal 2029 without major execution or customer concentration setbacks.
规则
This market will resolve to "Yes" if either Moody's Ratings or S&P Global Ratings publishes a rating action lowering its long-term credit rating for Oracle Corporation, or its rating on Oracle Corporation's senior unsecured debt, to below investment grade ("junk") by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." "Long-term credit rating" means S&P Global Ratings' long-term issuer credit rating or Moody's Ratings' long-term issuer rating on Oracle Corporation. "Below investment grade" means BB+ or lower on the S&P Global Ratings scale, or Ba1 or lower on the Moody's Ratings scale. A downgrade of Oracle Corporation's senior unsecured debt to below investment grade by either agency will qualify, even if that agency's long-term credit rating for Oracle Corporation remains investment grade. A change in outlook or CreditWatch/review status alone (for example, a move from Stable to Negative outlook, or placement on review for downgrade) will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be the official rating action publications of Moody's Ratings (https://ratings.moodys.com) and S&P Global Ratings (https://www.spglobal.com/ratings); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.