- OpenAI 会在 2026 年撤回其 Navier–Stokes 方程的解吗？6¢6%
OpenAI’s September 2026 announcement of an AI-generated proof establishing finite-time singularity for the forced 3D Navier-Stokes equations—complete with a publicly released 166-page manuscript and Lean formalization—has anchored trader sentiment against retraction. The machine-verified formalization and the result’s alignment with Clay Institute statements C and D provide a high bar for any later withdrawal, even amid credit disputes with Buckmaster and Alpöge and separate retractions of other OpenAI math preprints in October. Community scrutiny continues without reported fatal errors, while the company’s decision not to claim the Millennium Prize reduces external pressure. A reversal would require discovery of a substantive flaw in the verified construction or a major shift in how the result is framed, outcomes that remain low-probability given the current verification status.
规则
如果 OpenAI 在市场创建后至 2026年12月31日 23:59 ET 期间撤回其 Navier-Stokes 解法，则该市场将判定为“是”。否则，本市场将以“否”结算。 OpenAI 的 Navier-Stokes 解法是指 OpenAI 于 2026年9月8日 公布的 Navier-Stokes 解法（https://openai.com/index/navier-stokes-solution/）。 如果 OpenAI 正式并公开声明已发布的证明有误，或未能解决 Navier-Stokes 问题，则构成符合条件的撤回。任何其他方的声明均不符合条件。如果修订并未撤回最初证明作为 Navier-Stokes 问题解法的正确性，则不符合条件。关于该结果的作者身份、荣誉或归属，或关于其是否符合 Millennium Prize 资格的声明，单独而言均不符合条件。 该市场的主要判定来源为 OpenAI 的官方信息；不过，也可以采用可信报道形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。