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- 唐纳德·特朗普会在2026年获得诺贝尔和平奖吗？0¢0%
- UNRWA 会在 2026 年获得诺贝尔和平奖吗？0¢0%
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- 问题：习近平会在2026年获得诺贝尔和平奖吗？0¢0%
- 格蕾塔·滕伯格将在2026年获得诺贝尔和平奖吗？0¢0%
- 问题：查理·柯克会在2026年获得诺贝尔和平奖吗？0¢0%
- 问题：艾哈迈德·阿尔沙拉阿会在2026年获得诺贝尔和平奖吗？0¢0%
- 埃隆·马斯克会在2026年获得诺贝尔和平奖吗？0¢0%
- 问题：穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼会在2026年获得诺贝尔和平奖吗？0¢0%
- 国际法院会在2026年获得诺贝尔和平奖吗？0¢0%
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Traders have consolidated nearly all market share behind "Other" following today's announcement that South African jurist Navanethem "Navi" Pillay received the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize for advancing international law and accountability for war crimes. Her decades-long record—from defending Nelson Mandela under apartheid to serving on the International Criminal Court, as UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, and currently on the International Court of Justice—matched the Norwegian Nobel Committee's emphasis on bolstering global legal institutions amid rising conflicts. Pre-announcement frontrunners such as Yulia Navalnaya, Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms, and Mykola Kuleba drew little sustained interest, reflecting traders' accurate reading of the committee's institutional leanings over high-profile activists or politicians. An upset would have required an unexpected pivot to one of the listed political names, defying recent patterns favoring quiet legal or humanitarian work.
规则
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.