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This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Yulia Navalnaya leads Polymarket's 2026 Nobel Peace Prize field at 8% implied probability amid a fragmented field where no contender exceeds single digits, reflecting the Norwegian Nobel Committee's history of favoring human rights advocates over high-profile politicians. Her sustained visibility through anti-authoritarian campaigns and public appearances has built modest trader consensus, while Volodymyr Zelenskyy's 4.7% rests on Ukraine's defensive narrative without a decisive breakthrough. Organizations like UNRWA and the International Court of Justice draw support from multilateral peace efforts, yet recent nominations highlight grassroots humanitarian work in conflicts like Sudan as potential swing factors. With the October announcement approaching, momentum could shift on any late diplomatic developments or precursor signals, underscoring the award's unpredictable campaign dynamics.