- John Thune会成为下一任美国参议院少数党领袖吗？65¢65%
- Chuck Schumer会成为下一任美国参议院少数党领袖吗？20¢20%
- John Barrasso会成为下一任美国参议院少数党领袖吗？8¢8%
- Rick Scott会成为下一任美国参议院少数党领袖吗？4¢4%
- Tom Cotton会成为下一任美国参议院少数党领袖吗？4¢4%
- Mark Kelly会成为下一任美国参议院少数党领袖吗？3¢3%
- Patty Murray会成为下一任美国参议院少数党领袖吗？1¢1%
- Brian Schatz会成为下一任美国参议院少数党领袖吗？<1¢<1%
- Cory Booker会成为下一任美国参议院少数党领袖吗？<1¢<1%
Trader consensus positions John Thune as the clear frontrunner for next Senate Minority Leader at 69 percent implied probability, reflecting his established Republican leadership role and positioning after recent electoral shifts that could alter majority control. Chuck Schumer follows at 22.5 percent amid Democratic caucus dynamics and historical patterns of incumbent retention in opposition. Lower odds for alternatives such as John Barrasso at 7 percent and Rick Scott at 3.6 percent signal limited support for competing Republican figures. A broad field of other candidates clusters near 50 percent, underscoring uncertainty in internal party negotiations and potential leadership transitions. Scheduled caucus votes and any post-election announcements could still influence final outcomes within the resolution window.
规则
本市场将根据在 2026年11月3日 美国大选后召开的国会中，当选为首任参议院少数党领袖的人选进行结算。 如果截至 2027年6月30日 23:59 ET 尚未选出参议院少数党领袖，本市场将结算为“其他”。 结算依据将是美国参议院的官方信息，或相关政党党团组织的官方公告；不过，也可采用可信报道的一致结论。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。