- 下一个Claude Opus模型会在2026年9月30日之前发布吗？100¢100%
- 下一个Claude Opus模型会在2026年9月24日之前发布吗？100¢100%
- 下一个Claude Opus模型会在2026年9月27日之前发布吗？100¢100%
- 下一个Claude Opus模型会在2026年12月31日之前发布吗？100¢100%
- 下一个Claude Opus模型会在2026年9月22日之前发布吗？100¢100%
- 下一个Claude Opus模型会在2026年10月31日之前发布吗？100¢100%
- 下一代Claude Opus模型会在2026年9月23日之前发布吗？100¢100%
- 下一个Claude Opus模型会在2026年8月31日前发布吗？0¢0%
- 下一个Claude Opus模型会在2026年9月20日之前发布吗？0¢0%
- 下一个Claude Opus模型会在2026年9月17日之前发布吗？0¢0%
Anthropic’s release of Claude Opus 5.5 on September 22 drives current trader consensus, following the July launch of Opus 5 and a pattern of roughly three-week Opus updates amid competition from OpenAI’s GPT series and internal Fable/Mythos variants. The new model delivers performance close to frontier offerings like Fable 5.1 at 40% lower cost, faster output, clearer writing, and stronger safety results, including an 85% reduction in containment bypass attempts. It is priced at $4/$20 per million input/output tokens and available immediately via major cloud platforms. Sonnet 5.5 and Haiku 5.5 are slated for the coming weeks, while historical release intervals point to a potential next Opus iteration around mid-October. These confirmed announcements and ongoing frontier-lab pressure explain the market’s heavy weighting toward the most recent date.
规则
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.