- 2026年会有新的大流行病吗？2¢2%
Strong surveillance from the CDC and WHO shows respiratory illness activity, including COVID-19, remaining low nationally with declining cases and no novel pathogen achieving sustained global transmission as of early November 2026. Current variants such as XFG and BA.3.2 are classified as low-risk variants under monitoring, with vaccines retaining effectiveness against severe outcomes and outbreaks like Ebola in the DRC staying regionally contained rather than escalating to epidemic thresholds. This evidence underpins the 97.9% market-implied probability of no new pandemic, reflecting trader consensus on endemic patterns and historical rarity of rapid global spread. Realistic shifts could still arise from an immune-evasive strain emerging with high transmissibility or unexpected escalation of localized threats beyond containment before year-end.
规则
如果世界卫生组织（WHO）在2026年1月1日至2026年12月31日 23:59 ET之间宣布任何疾病为大流行病，此市场将以“是”结算。否则，本市场将以“否”结算。 结算依据将是世界卫生组织的官方公告。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。