- 民主党会在2026年赢得新墨西哥州的参议院选举吗？96¢
- 共和党会在2026年赢得新墨西哥州的参议院选举吗？4¢
Ben Ray Luján’s strong position in the November 3, 2026, New Mexico Senate election stems from his incumbency, consistent double-digit leads in recent polling, and broad support among Democrats and independents. The state’s Democratic lean, evident in recent presidential results, combined with Luján’s substantial fundraising edge and established name recognition, has kept the race rated Solid Democratic by major forecasters. Republican nominee Larry Marker, an oil and gas operator who advanced only as a write-in candidate after the initial GOP contender was disqualified, trails significantly in resources and visibility. Traders’ consensus reflects these fundamentals, though late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or sharp national shift could still alter the outcome before Election Day.
规则
本市场将根据2026年新墨西哥州美国参议院中期选举的获胜者结算，包括任何决选。 如果某候选人是相关政党提名的候选人，则视为其代表该政党。民主党或共和党提名人选以外的候选人（例如绿党、自由意志党或独立候选人）可能会在之后加入。 以独立候选人身份参选的候选人，无论其与该政党有任何关联，都不纳入“民主党”或“共和党”选项。 为方便交易者，合约中可能会列出候选人的姓名。如果任何一位列名候选人在选举日前被替换，不再代表其所属政党参选，合约中的姓名将会更新，市场将根据该政党的替代候选人结果结算。 本市场的结算依据为美联社、Fox News和NBC。三家消息来源都宣布同一位候选人获胜后，本市场即进行结算。如果这三个消息来源都没有在该州宣布同一位候选人获胜，本市场将根据官方认证结果结算。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。