- 2026年GDP增长为负吗？3¢3%
Robust US economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 97% market-implied probability that real GDP growth for 2026 will remain positive. Official projections from the Federal Reserve and private analysts center on 2.3% annual growth, supported by resilient consumer spending, strong AI-driven business fixed investment, and a labor market near full employment, with Q2 2026 GDP expanding at a 2.2% annualized rate and Q3 nowcasts near 2.8%. This pricing aggregates trader capital at risk, reflecting the low base rate of outright contraction amid current momentum. Tail risks that could still shift outcomes include a sharp escalation in energy prices, abrupt monetary tightening, or a major external shock capable of tipping quarterly readings negative before year-end.
规则
如果美国经济分析局（BEA）预计于2027年1月发布的2026年第四季度“初步估算”所推算出的2026全年经季节性调整并年化的GDP增长率低于 0，此市场将判定为“是”。否则，此市场将判定为“否”。 GDP报告将在此处发布：https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product。 判定时只会采用首份可获取、标注为2026年第四季度“初步估算”的GDP报告；该报告提供2026全年GDP增长率的初步数据。之后对数据所作的任何修订或更新均不予考虑。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。