- 到 2027 年第四季度末，抵押贷款逾期率会超过 3% 吗？32¢32%
Sustained high mortgage rates around 7% through 2027, as projected in Fannie Mae’s October 2026 forecast and MBA outlooks, represent the main factor anchoring trader sentiment at a 62% implied probability that the overall delinquency rate stays below 3% by end-Q4 2027. Recent ICE and MBA data show 30+ day delinquency rates fluctuating between 3.35% and 4.37% in 2026, with serious (90+ day) delinquencies rising modestly year-over-year but remaining near pre-pandemic levels at roughly 1%. Strong homeowner equity cushions, tight post-2008 underwriting standards with median credit scores above 750, and contained unemployment support the current pricing, even as FHA portfolios exhibit elevated stress and labor-market softening appears in leading indicators. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FOMC decisions, Q3/Q4 2026 economic releases, and any shifts in 10-year Treasury yields that could alter rate expectations.
规则
如果 2026 年第三季度至 2027 年第四季度期间任一季度的抵押贷款拖欠率高于 3.00%，此市场将以“是”结算。否则，本市场将以“否”结算。 抵押贷款拖欠率是指美联储“Delinquency Rates, All Banks, SA”表格中，“Real estate loans, Booked in domestic offices”下“Residential”列所显示的住宅房地产贷款拖欠率（https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/chargeoff/delallsa.htm）。 符合条件的季度抵押贷款拖欠率一旦高于 3.00%，或 2027 年第四季度的数据一经发布，此市场即会结算。如果截至 2028年3月31日 23:59 ET，2027 年第四季度的数据尚未发布，此市场将根据当时可用的数据结算。 所有已发布的季度数据均视为最终数据。不考虑对先前已公布数据所作的修订。 此市场的结算来源为上方链接的美联储表格。如果结算来源发布了足以判定某市场的数据，但这些数据明显有误，且由技术或操作错误，或对结算来源或其数据的未经授权干预所致，则市场可以自原始发布时间起保持开放，最长为七（7）个日历日（ET），以等待结算来源发布更正数据。如果Resolution Source在该期限内发布了更正后的数值，该数值即可用于结算。如果该期限内没有发布更正后的数值，Polymarket将发布一项澄清，以确定原先发布的数值是否可用于结算，或是否需要采取其他行动来维持市场的有序运行。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。