- 穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊会在10月31日前公开露面吗？1¢1%
- 穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊会在12月31日前公开露面吗？18¢18%
Mojtaba Khamenei has issued only written statements since his March 2026 appointment as Supreme Leader following his father’s death in February strikes, with no verified video, audio, or public sighting amid ongoing regional conflict. Iranian officials, including the judiciary chief and parliament speaker in late October, report private meetings and describe him as healthy and in command, citing security protocols that limit exposure. A diplomat recently claimed he attended his father’s July funeral and occasionally joins demonstrations at night. These factors sustain trader consensus around very low near-term probabilities for a public appearance, as the combination of assassination risks and regime preference for controlled communications outweighs reassurances without visual confirmation. Any shift would likely require a major diplomatic breakthrough or regime event within the resolution window.
规则
如果在市场创建至所列日期（ET）期间，有人拍摄伊朗最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊的照片或视频，该市场将结算为“是”。否则，本市场将以“否”结算。 要使此市场判定为“是”，照片或视频必须在此市场的时间范围内拍摄并发布。图片或视频必须真实。档案资料、此前录制的影像、重复使用的图片、经过数字篡改的内容、AI 生成的媒体、摆拍重现或任何身后发布的内容均不符合条件。 数字形式的露面，包括直播，将计入本市场。 该市场的结算来源将是穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊的照片／视频，以及可信报道对其真伪所形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。