- 2026年密歇根州中期选举参议员的总投票数会少于4,200,000吗？3¢
- 2026年密歇根州参议员中期选举的总投票数会在4,200,000到4,400,000之间吗？7¢
- 2026年密歇根州中期选举参议员的总投票数是否将在4,400,000到4,600,000之间？24¢
- 2026年密歇根州参议员中期选举的总投票数是否将在4,600,000至4,800,000之间？30¢
- 2026年密歇根州中期选举参议员的总投票数是否将在4,800,000到5,000,000之间？28¢
- 2026年密歇根州参议员中期选举的总投票数是否将在5,000,000到5,200,000之间？6¢
- 2026年密歇根州参议员中期选举的总投票数会在5,200,000到5,400,000之间吗？3¢
- 2026年密歇根州中期选举中参议员的总投票数是否将在5,400,000到5,600,000之间？2¢
- 2026年密歇根州参议员中期选举的总投票数会达到或超过5,600,000吗？8¢
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Michigan. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Michigan, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Democratic primary turnout reached a midterm record of over 1.5 million votes in August 2026, signaling strong partisan energy on the left ahead of the November 3 general election between Abdul El-Sayed and Mike Rogers. This enthusiasm, combined with a closely contested Senate race and favorable generic ballot trends for Democrats, supports expectations of solid but not presidential-level participation. Michigan cast a record 5.7 million ballots in the 2024 presidential election; midterm turnout historically falls 15-25% below that benchmark due to lower visibility and the absence of a national headliner. Republican primary participation lagged, reflecting softer motivation amid national dynamics, while early voting infrastructure and registration levels remain stable. These elements position the 4.6M-4.8M range as the trader consensus, with adjacent bins reflecting uncertainty over whether heightened Democratic mobilization or typical midterm drop-off will dominate overall participation.