- Linke会赢得所有有效第二选票的8%到11%吗？60¢
- Linke会获得不到所有有效第二选票的8%吗？6¢
- Linke会获得所有有效第二选票的11%到14%吗？36¢
- Linke 能否获得至少 14% 的所有有效第二选票？<1¢
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by Linke in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Recent polling in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern shows Die Linke holding steady near 11 percent in late August surveys from Infratest dimap, Forsa, and INSA, a modest decline from 12–13 percent earlier in the summer but above the party’s 9.9 percent result in 2021. As the junior partner in the incumbent SPD-led red-red coalition, the party benefits from name recognition for its state ministers yet faces pressure from the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance drawing left-leaning voters and from overall turnout dynamics in a contest where the AfD leads but the SPD has narrowed the gap. With the September 20 election only days away, traders appear to weigh the risk of a late softening against the party’s consistent double-digit showing, producing the current consensus around the 8–11 percent and 11–14 percent brackets.