- 伊朗会同意在 12月31日 前停止铀浓缩吗？4¢4%
Iran's refusal to transfer or relinquish its stockpile of enriched uranium underpins the high probability assigned to no agreement by December 31. Senior Iranian officials, including Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei, stated in mid-October that not a single gram would leave the country, framing the material as a national asset and conditioning any nuclear discussions on prior US steps such as lifting the naval blockade, easing oil sanctions, and releasing frozen funds. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi reported on October 27 that inspectors remain unable to verify the status of approximately 440 kg of highly enriched uranium due to denied access since 2025 strikes, while mediation efforts involving Pakistan and others have produced no breakthrough on ending enrichment. US positions continue to emphasize meaningful limits, leaving the December deadline distant amid ongoing procedural and substantive divides.
规则
如果伊朗在2026年12月31日 23:59 ET之前公开同意停止所有铀浓缩活动，此市场将结算为“是”。否则，此市场将判定为“否”。 伊朗正式承诺停止所有铀浓缩活动，即符合结算为“是”的条件，无论是单方面宣布，还是作为与美国或以色列达成的协议的一部分。 在本市场结算日期之前达成的任何协议或承诺均符合条件，无论该协议是否生效，以及何时生效。 伊朗同意在任何一段时间内停止所有铀浓缩活动，均计入此条件。 伊朗同意以停止所有铀浓缩活动作为更全面和平进程或协议的先决条件，即符合条件，即使该协议尚未敲定，或不属于正式化和平协议的一部分。 仅限制或设定浓缩程度或质量上限的协议不符合条件，例如将浓缩程度降低至武器级门槛以下。 本市场结算的主要依据将是可信报道形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。