- 新人物党（NL）在下届俄罗斯国家杜马选举中获得的席位会少于35个吗？100¢100%
- 新人民党（NL）将在下一届俄罗斯国家杜马选举中赢得35到44个席位吗？0¢0%
- 新人民党（NL）会在下一届俄罗斯国家杜马选举中赢得45到54个席位吗？0¢0%
- 新人民党（NL）将在下一届俄罗斯国家杜马选举中赢得55到64个席位吗？0¢0%
- 新人民党（NL）将在下一届俄罗斯国家杜马选举中赢得65至74个席位吗？0¢0%
- 新人民党（NL）将在下一届俄罗斯国家杜马选举中赢得85个或以上席位吗？0¢0%
- 新人民党（NL）将在下一届俄罗斯国家杜马选举中获得75至84个席位吗？0¢0%
New People’s projected seat total in Russia’s September 2026 State Duma election remains firmly below 35, reflecting the party’s roughly 8% share of the party-list vote and zero single-mandate district wins in preliminary Central Election Commission results. The mixed electoral system awards half the 450 seats through single-member constituencies that United Russia has dominated, while New People’s support concentrates among urban and creative-class voters without sufficient breadth for constituency victories. Historical precedent from its 2021 debut and the party’s status within the managed multiparty system further constrain gains. Trader consensus aligns with these outcomes, though modest upward adjustments remain possible if other parties fall below the 5% threshold and trigger seat redistribution.
规则
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.