- 开普敦在10月14日的最高气温会是15°C或以下吗？<1¢
- 10月14日开普敦的最高气温会是16°C吗？<1¢
- 10月14日开普敦的最高气温会是17°C吗？<1¢
- 开普敦在10月14日的最高气温会是18°C吗？55¢
- 10月14日开普敦的最高气温会是19°C吗？51¢
- 开普敦10月14日的最高气温会是20°C吗？3¢
- 10月14日开普敦的最高气温会是21°C吗？3¢
- 开普敦在10月14日的最高气温会是22°C吗？<1¢
- 10月14日开普敦的最高气温会是23°C吗？<1¢
- 10月14日开普敦的最高气温会是24°C吗？<1¢
- 10月14日开普敦的最高气温会达到25°C或更高吗？<1¢
Forecast consensus from models like GFS and observations from agencies place Cape Town’s October 14 high in the 18–19°C range, aligning with the market’s 55% and 39% implied probabilities for those exact outcomes. Springtime conditions feature moderate northwest winds, mostly cloudy skies, and no strong warm advection or cold front passage, keeping daytime peaks near seasonal norms around 19–20°C. Recent model runs show little deviation, with afternoon readings hovering near 18°C and limited upside from solar heating under high cloud. Traders appear to weigh this stable guidance heavily, assigning only marginal odds to 20°C or higher while discounting cooler scenarios below 18°C given current surface observations. Updated forecasts later today could refine the final maximum before resolution.
规则
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.