- 多伦多在10月14日的最高气温会在11°C或以下吗？<1¢
- 10月14日多伦多的最高气温会是12°C吗？<1¢
- 10月14日多伦多的最高气温会是13°C吗？<1¢
- 10月14日，多伦多的最高气温会是14°C吗？<1¢
- 10月14日多伦多的最高气温会是15°C吗？<1¢
- 10月14日多伦多的最高气温会是16°C吗？<1¢
- 10月14日多伦多的最高气温会是17°C吗？<1¢
- 10月14日多伦多的最高气温会是18°C吗？90¢
- 10月14日多伦多的最高气温会是19°C吗？7¢
- 10月14日多伦多的最高气温会是20°C吗？<1¢
- 10月14日，多伦多的最高气温会达到21°C或更高吗？<1¢
Forecast consensus from Environment Canada and other models points to a daytime high near 17°C under mostly cloudy skies with northwest winds and a low chance of showers, placing the outcome squarely in the 18°C bin that holds 89.5% market-implied odds. This mild reading for mid-October stems from a relatively warm air mass and light winds that have limited overnight cooling, keeping morning readings around 14°C before modest daytime warming. Historical averages place the October 14 high at about 15°C, so current conditions sit modestly above normal without reaching the thresholds needed for 19°C or higher. Minor model spread around the exact peak accounts for the small probabilities on 19°C (8.5%) and lower outcomes, with no significant forecast revisions in the past day altering the dominant 17–18°C range.
规则
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.