- 2026年OpenAI模型在“人类最后考试”中取得的最高分会达到50%或更高吗？95¢
- OpenAI模型在2026年《人类最后考试》中取得的最高分会达到55%或更高吗？90¢
- 2026年OpenAI模型在人类最后考试中取得的最高分会达到60%或更高吗？55¢
- 在2026年的人类终极考试中，OpenAI模型取得的最高分会达到65%或更高吗？37¢
- OpenAI模型在2026年人类终极考试中取得的最高分会达到70%或更高吗？12¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
OpenAI’s GPT-5 series models currently trail Anthropic’s Claude variants on Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboards, with GPT-5.4 Pro posting 58.7% and GPT-5.5 Pro at 57.2% versus Claude Fable 5.1’s leading 65% as of early September 2026. Progress stems from iterative GPT-5 releases incorporating stronger reasoning chains, tool use, and agentic workflows that tackle the benchmark’s 2,500 graduate-level questions across math, sciences, and humanities. Competitive pressure from Meta’s Muse Spark 1.1 at 62.1% and rapid Claude updates have shaped trader views on whether OpenAI can close the gap before year-end, with upcoming model iterations and potential benchmark revisions serving as key catalysts.