- 美国2026年的GDP增长会低于0.5%吗？<1¢<1%
- 2026年美国GDP增长率会在0.5%到1.0%之间吗？<1¢<1%
- 2026年美国GDP增长率会在1.0%到1.5%之间吗？<1¢<1%
- 2026年美国GDP增长率会在1.5%到2.0%之间吗？2¢2%
- 2026年美国GDP增长率会在2.0%到2.5%之间吗？50¢50%
- 2026年美国GDP增长会高于2.5%吗？53¢53%
Recent forecasts from institutions including Vanguard, Wells Fargo, and the Federal Reserve place 2026 U.S. real GDP growth around 2.3%, supported by AI-fueled business investment and resilient consumer spending that have kept quarterly readings firm despite September's hotter CPI at 3.7% year-over-year. The near-even split between the 2.0–2.5% and >2.5% brackets on Polymarket reflects trader focus on whether capital expenditure momentum and tax policy tailwinds can sustain above-trend expansion or whether additional Fed rate hikes—following the September increase to a 3.75–4.00% target range—will exert enough drag through tighter financial conditions. Key near-term catalysts include the Q3 GDP advance estimate due October 29 and upcoming inflation and employment releases that could shift the market-implied path.
规则
本市场将根据美国 2026 年经季节性调整的实际 GDP 增长率进行结算，数据以经济分析局（BEA）预计于 2027 年 1 月发布的 2026 年第四季度“初步估算”公告为准。 如果公布的数值恰好处于两个区间之间，本市场将按较高的区间结算。 GDP 公告将在此处发布：https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product 注意：相关数据为初步估算中列出的全年实际 GDP 增长率，通常表示为 2025 年全年水平至 2026 年全年水平的百分比变化。初步估算发布后对该数值进行的任何修订，均不会纳入本市场的结算依据。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。