- 埃隆·马斯克会在2026年9月10日至9月12日期间发布40-64条推文吗？100¢100%
- 埃隆·马斯克会在2026年9月10日至9月12日期间发布少于40条推文吗？0¢0%
- 埃隆·马斯克在2026年9月10日至9月12日期间会发65-89条推文吗？0¢0%
- 埃隆·马斯克会在2026年9月10日至9月12日期间发布90到114条推文吗？0¢0%
- 埃隆·马斯克在2026年9月10日至9月12日期间会发115到139条推文吗？0¢0%
- 埃隆·马斯克在2026年9月10日至9月12日期间会发140到164条推文吗？0¢0%
- 埃隆·马斯克会在2026年9月10日至9月12日期间发布165-189条推文吗？0¢0%
- 埃隆·马斯克在2026年9月10日至9月12日期间会发布190-214条推文吗？0¢0%
- 埃隆·马斯克会在2026年9月10日至9月12日期间发布215到239条推文吗？0¢0%
- 伊隆·马斯克会在2026年9月10日至9月12日期间发推240条及以上吗？0¢0%
Traders see the 40-64 tweet range as the overwhelming favorite because it aligns with Elon Musk’s established X activity patterns, where he typically posts 13–21 times per day absent major breaking events. His consistent engagement with followers, replies, and commentary on tech, politics, and SpaceX updates has produced similar three-day totals in recent periods, giving the market strong historical grounding. An upset into higher brackets would require an unusually intense news cycle, product launch, or personal development that dramatically increases his output, while lower totals could occur only if he steps back for travel, meetings, or platform moderation—scenarios traders currently assign minimal probability given his routine pace.
规则
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 10 12:00 PM ET to September 12, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.