- Elon 牛市组合2¢2%
Traders assign over 95% probability to “No” on the Elon Bull Run Parlay because all three legs—Elon Musk reaching trillionaire status, the birth of another child in 2026, and nine or more successful SpaceX Starship launches reaching space—must occur before year-end. As of mid-October, Tesla’s valuation remains far short of the required surge, no confirmed pregnancy announcement has surfaced, and Starship’s flight-test cadence has produced only a handful of orbital attempts with mixed results. The compressed timeline leaves little room for the rapid progress needed in regulatory approvals, manufacturing scale-up, or launch-site operations. While an unexpected Tesla rally, private family news, or accelerated Starship test program could theoretically close the gap, each outcome faces independent structural and timing hurdles that keep the joint probability low.
规则
如果在 1月1日 至 2026年12月31日、23:59 ET 期间满足以下所有条件，该市场将结算为“是”： 埃隆·马斯克成为万亿美元富豪 - Elon 再有一个孩子 - 9次或以上SpaceX Starship发射进入太空 否则，此市场将判定为“否”。 本市场将保持开放，直到确认上述条件中至少有一项未满足，或直到上述所有条件均在规定期限内满足。 本市场的完整规则请见此处： https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdf
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。