- 2026年第四季度中国GDP增速会低于3.4%吗？2¢
- 2026年第四季度中国GDP增速会在3.4%到3.7%之间吗？4¢
- 2026年第四季度中国GDP增速会在3.7%到4.0%之间吗？3¢
- 2026年第四季度中国GDP增速是否介于4.0%至4.3%之间？22¢
- 2026年第四季度中国GDP增速是否会在4.3%至4.6%之间？40¢
- 2026年第四季度中国GDP增速会在4.6%到4.9%之间吗？20¢
- 2026年第四季度中国GDP增长率会在4.9%至5.2%之间吗？14¢
- 2026年第四季度中国GDP增速会在5.2%到5.5%之间吗？6¢
- 2026年第四季度中国GDP增长率是否将达到至少5.5%？5¢
Recent Q3 2026 GDP growth of 4.5% year-over-year, beating consensus and accelerating from Q2's 4.3%, has anchored trader expectations for Q4 around the 4.3-4.6% range amid Beijing's 4.5-5.0% annual target. Export momentum in AI-related tech goods and September industrial output gains of 5.5% provide support, while targeted stimulus including rate cuts, mortgage subsidies, and additional local government bond quotas rolled out in late September and early October aim to bolster investment. However, weak retail sales at 1.1% in September, persistent property sector drags, and subdued consumption keep the distribution tight between 4.0-4.6% brackets. Key swing factors include the pace of fiscal implementation ahead of December policy meetings and any further easing to counter downside risks in domestic demand.
规则
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled for some time in January 2027. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/