- 中国会在 12月31日 前发射弹道导弹吗？11¢11%
China has intensified military signaling through unannounced naval and rocket force drills in early November, including DF-26 launches, area-denial operations around Taiwan, and reports of a submarine-launched ICBM test from the Yellow Sea, yet these activities remain framed as routine training rather than escalatory strikes. Beijing’s emphasis on rapid-response capabilities and new systems such as the DF-61 occurs alongside Xi Jinping’s recent statements prioritizing peaceful reunification and ahead of the APEC summit, where a Trump-Xi meeting is anticipated. Traders assess that these factors, combined with the short remaining window and absence of acute cross-strait triggers, support a high probability that no ballistic missile launch meeting market resolution criteria will occur by December 31.
规则
如果中国在市场创建后至2026年12月31日 23:59 ET期间发射弹道导弹，该市场将判定为“是”。否则，本市场将以“否”结算。 只有发射弹道导弹才符合判定为“是”的条件，包括洲际弹道导弹（ICBM）、潜射弹道导弹（SLBM）和弹道反舰导弹。 发射其他系统，例如巡航导弹、地对空导弹（SAM）、多管火箭发射系统/火箭炮、鱼雷等，均不符合判定为“是”的条件。 市场判定将依据可靠来源公开提供的信息，例如政府官方声明、联合国等国际监测机构的报告，或知名国际媒体的报道。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。