- 中国会在 12月31日 前发射弹道导弹吗？9¢9%
China’s July 6, 2026, submarine-launched ballistic missile test into the Pacific remains the most recent major public launch, with Beijing describing it as routine annual training and issuing only short-notice notifications that drew criticism from the United States, Japan, Australia, and others. Subsequent activity through mid-October has centered on DF-26 readiness drills, coastal live-fire exercises, and routine PLA aircraft and naval patrols around Taiwan, without confirmed additional ballistic missile firings into international waters. These patterns of gray-zone operations and capability signaling, rather than new long-range tests, have shaped trader views that another launch before year-end is unlikely amid stable cross-strait dynamics and no evident escalation triggers in the final months of 2026.
规则
如果中国在市场创建后至2026年12月31日 23:59 ET期间发射弹道导弹，该市场将判定为“是”。否则，本市场将以“否”结算。 只有发射弹道导弹才符合判定为“是”的条件，包括洲际弹道导弹（ICBM）、潜射弹道导弹（SLBM）和弹道反舰导弹。 发射其他系统，例如巡航导弹、地对空导弹（SAM）、多管火箭发射系统/火箭炮、鱼雷等，均不符合判定为“是”的条件。 市场判定将依据可靠来源公开提供的信息，例如政府官方声明、联合国等国际监测机构的报告，或知名国际媒体的报道。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。