- Lula会在巴西总统选举第二轮中于伯南布哥州获得最多选票吗？99¢
- Flavio Bolsonaro会在巴西总统选举第二轮中于伯南布哥州获得最多选票吗？1¢
Lula holds a commanding position to finish first in Pernambuco in the October 25 second round, reflecting consistent polling leads of 20–34 points over Flávio Bolsonaro and his 63.45% first-round share in the state. Recent surveys from AtlasIntel and Real Time Big Data show Lula at 57–61% in hypothetical runoffs, supported by approval ratings near 60% for his administration and elevated rejection of the PL candidate. Pernambuco, the Northeast’s second-largest electorate, has long favored PT candidates, reinforced by first-round results and party alignments among left and progressive groups. The governor’s neutrality and limited recent shifts in voter sentiment have kept probabilities stable. A narrow path for challengers would require substantial late mobilization or turnout drops among Lula supporters, though current evidence points to limited scope for reversal.
规则
总统选举第二轮定于 2026年10月25日 在巴西伯南布哥州举行。 本市场将以在伯南布哥州举行的本次选举第二轮中获得最多有效票的名单候选人作为结算结果。 候选人主要根据在伯南布哥州获得的有效票数排名。如果两名或更多候选人在任何名次上并列，则按照本市场所列候选人全名的字母顺序决定排名。应用此排名后，名次最高的候选人将是本市场的结果。 如果截至 2027年6月30日 23:59 ET 仍无法确定此次选举的结果，本市场将结算为“其他”。 该市场将根据选举结果结算，结果以可信新闻报道的共识为准。如存在歧义，本市场将仅依据巴西政府公布的官方结果进行结算，具体为最高选举法院（Tribunal Superior Eleitoral，TSE）公布的结果（例如：https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/）。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。