- Linke将在所有有效的第二选票中获得不到17%吗？18¢
- Linke会获得所有有效二选票的17%到20%吗？37¢
- Linke党在所有有效的第二选票中会获得20%到23%吗？29¢
- Linke 会获得至少 23% 的所有有效第二选票吗？20¢
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by Linke in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Recent polling for Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election shows Die Linke fluctuating between roughly 19 and 22 percent, placing it in a narrow contest with the CDU, AfD, and Greens. The party has gained substantially from its 12.2 percent result in the 2023 repeat vote by emphasizing housing affordability, rent regulation, and public transit, yet a late-August Infratest dimap survey recorded a three-point drop to 19 percent amid reports of internal disputes. The CDU has edged ahead in the same poll at 21 percent while overall satisfaction with the incumbent CDU-SPD senate remains low. With four parties clustered within a few points and turnout still uncertain, trader ranges around 17–23 percent reflect the narrow polling spread and limited time for any single development to produce a decisive shift before election day.