- Zhang Youxia 會在 2027 年前被判處監禁嗎？9¢9%
Zhang Youxia, former vice chairman of China’s Central Military Commission, was placed under investigation in January 2026, expelled from the Communist Party and military in September, and had the decision ratified at the Fifth Plenum in late October. His case was transferred to military prosecutors for review and prosecution on charges including factionalism, disloyalty, and large-scale graft. Comparable high-level PLA corruption cases have typically required 18–24 months from expulsion to a public military-court sentence, placing any verdict well after the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline. Zhang’s age and reported health concerns further align with precedents in which senior figures receive delayed or non-public handling. With only weeks remaining before the cutoff and no reported trial proceedings, traders assign a 91.5% probability that sentencing will not occur before 2027.
規則
如果中國將軍 Zhang Youxia 因任何指控而被判處任何刑期的監禁，且判決在 2026年12月31日、下午11:59 或之前作出，此市場將結算為「是」。否則，此市場將以「否」結算。 此市場將持續開放至 2026年12月31日，或直到 Zhang Youxia 被判處監禁為止；即使最初的判決不包含監禁，也不影響此規則。任何判決均符合條件，不受後續上訴或刑期變更影響。 此市場結算的主要依據將是中國政府及執法部門的官方資訊；但也可以採用可信報導所形成的共識。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。