- 習近平會在2027年前離婚嗎？<1¢<1%
Traders assign a 99% probability against Xi Jinping divorcing before 2027 because Peng Liyuan continues to appear publicly alongside him in official capacities, including recent state visits and summit events through September and October 2026. Chinese Communist Party norms prioritize a stable family image to reinforce leadership authority, while strict information controls and the absence of any verified announcements or credible reporting reinforce the consensus. Xi and Peng have maintained their marriage since 1987 with no documented signals of separation. Realistic scenarios that could still alter the outcome remain limited to an unexpected official statement or substantiated media confirmation, though both face substantial institutional and timeline barriers given the compressed window to the end of 2026.
規則
如果習近平和／或彭麗媛在市場建立日期至2026年12月31日 下午11:59 ET之間宣布有意離婚，此市場將判定為「是」。否則，此市場將以「否」結算。 只要他們在指定日期前宣布有意離婚，就足以判定為「是」，無論之後是否真的離婚，或實際離婚是否發生在此市場的時間範圍之外。 判定依據將為習近平和／或彭麗媛及其代表的聲明；但也可考慮可信媒體報導所形成的明確共識。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。