- 美國會在 2026 年併吞任何領土嗎？4¢4%
International diplomatic agreements and longstanding norms against altering sovereign borders have channeled US strategic priorities into expanded military access agreements rather than formal territorial annexation. A September 2026 security pact with Denmark and Greenland granted the United States permanent basing rights, unrestricted movement, and influence over foreign investments on the island without transferring sovereignty, even if Greenland later gains independence. Similar rhetoric regarding Canada, the Panama Canal, or other areas has produced no sovereignty changes, consistent with the absence of new US territorial acquisitions since 1986. Trader consensus at this level reflects institutional, alliance, and domestic constraints. Unforeseen escalations in active conflicts or abrupt bilateral shifts in the final weeks of 2026 remain the primary variables that could theoretically alter outcomes before year-end.
規則
如果美國在 2026年12月31日 下午11:59 ET 前正式吞併任何領土，此市場將判定為「是」。否則，此市場將以「否」結算。 吞併是指美國政府透過正式聲明或法律行為，宣稱對某領土擁有主權，而該政府在此市場建立時尚未宣稱對該領土擁有主權。 符合條件的吞併案例包括路易斯安那購地案；但若定居者在沒有正式吞併的情況下宣稱對土地擁有行政控制權，則不算符合條件。 此市場的主要判定依據將是美國政府的官方資訊；但也可採用可信報導所形成的共識。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。