- 特朗普會在12月31日之前訪問北韓嗎？5¢5%
President Donald Trump has repeatedly signaled openness to renewed engagement with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, including comments in October 2026 that he may meet during his November Asia trip for the APEC summit in Shenzhen, China. This builds on prior summits in 2018–2019 and recent remarks about personal rapport, scaled-back U.S.-South Korea drills, and hopes for dialogue before year-end. Trader odds for an actual visit to North Korean territory by December 31, 2026, remain low due to the absence of confirmed logistics inside the country, ongoing North Korean ballistic missile tests and ICBM displays, lack of verified high-level preparations, and historical challenges in reaching substantive agreements on sanctions or denuclearization. Potential catalysts include outcomes from the APEC gathering or any China-mediated signals, though structural barriers such as Pyongyang’s conditions and verification requirements continue to limit near-term probabilities.
規則
如果唐納·川普在 2026年12月31日 下午11:59 ET 前訪問北韓，這個市場將以「是」結算。否則，此市場將以「否」結算。 就本市場而言，「訪問」是指川普親自進入北韓的陸地或海域領土。在本市場的期間內，川普是否進入北韓領空，不會影響本市場的結算。 此資訊的主要結算來源將是川普的官方資訊、由其已驗證社群媒體帳號發布的資訊，以及北韓的官方資訊；不過，也會參考可信報導的共識。
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