- 特朗普會在2026年底前赦免吉絲蘭·麥克斯韋嗎？4¢4%
The near-certain trader consensus against a Trump pardon for Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026 reflects the absence of any public statements, administration signals, or policy priorities indicating consideration of clemency in this case tied to the Epstein investigation. Maxwell's ongoing legal appeals and 20-year sentence have produced no developments shifting executive branch focus, while the politically sensitive nature of the underlying charges creates strong institutional and reputational barriers. Historical patterns from the prior Trump term show no precedent for such action. Late-breaking factors that could still alter outcomes include unexpected court rulings, new evidence in related proceedings, or sudden shifts in White House priorities during the final months of the term.
規則
如果 Ghislaine Maxwell 在 2025年7月23日 至 2026年12月31日 的 下午11:59 ET 之前獲得 Donald Trump 頒發的總統特赦、減刑或緩刑，本市場將結算為「是」。否則，此市場將以「否」結算。 如果在本市場的期限內，Trump 已不可能頒發聯邦特赦、減刑或緩刑，本市場可能會立即結算為「否」。 判定某人是否獲得特赦的主要依據將是美國政府的官方資訊；不過，也會參考可信報導所形成的共識。
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