- 特朗普會在2027年之前支持 JD·范斯競選總統嗎？5¢5%
President Donald Trump’s recent public refusal to discuss or commit to endorsing Vice President JD Vance for the 2028 Republican nomination has reinforced trader expectations that no early endorsement will occur before 2027. In an October 20 Oval Office exchange, Trump described Vance as talented and capable but stated the two had never discussed the topic, calling it premature and directing focus to the November midterms. Vance has voiced confidence that Trump would eventually back him if he runs, while acknowledging the possibility of a contested primary and the value of allowing candidates to compete independently. Trump has previously labeled Vance his “most likely” heir apparent yet has also highlighted other figures such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio, maintaining flexibility ahead of the 2028 cycle. These signals align with the 94.9% implied probability on “No.”
規則
如果唐納·川普在 2026年12月31日 下午11:59 ET 或之前，公開支持 JD Vance 參選 2028 年美國總統選舉，或該次選舉的共和黨初選，或宣布他會投票給 JD Vance，本市場將判定為「是」。否則，本市場將判定為「否」。 如果唐納·川普宣布他會投票給另一位候選人，或支持另一位候選人參選 2028 年美國總統選舉或該次選舉的共和黨初選，本市場將立即判定為「否」。 這個市場的結算來源將是唐納德·特朗普或其代表之一的官方資訊，或可信報導對特朗普支持某人的一致認定。
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