Recent legislative action and political calendar dynamics explain the strong trader consensus favoring "No." The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, enacted in 2025, already restored full R&D expensing and delivered other corporate relief valued in the tens of billions, while extending key 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions. Treasury guidance now under development further eases corporate alternative minimum tax interactions with those deductions, providing implementation-level benefits rather than new statutory reductions. With the 2026 midterms less than three weeks away and voter attention centered on affordability, living costs, and foreign policy rather than additional tax legislation, prospects for further corporate rate cuts or major new relief before 2027 remain limited. Fiscal pressures and the narrow window before year-end also constrain near-term action. Traders therefore price a high probability that no additional corporate tax cuts will occur in the remaining period.
如果美國總統 Donald J. Trump 在 2026年12月31日 下午11:59 ET 之前的任何時間簽署一項法案使其成為法律,並將美國的企業稅率降至 21% 以下,則此市場將結算為「是」。否則,此市場將以「否」結算。 請注意,降稅不必在判定日期前生效,只需在該日期前簽署成為法律即可。 本市場結算的主要依據將是特朗普政府的官方資訊,但也會參考可信資訊所形成的共識。
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