- 川普會在 2026年12月31日 前創設關稅紅利嗎？1¢1%
Trader consensus on a 95.5% chance that no tariff dividend will be created by December 31, 2026, reflects structural barriers that have persisted since the November 2025 proposal. A February 2026 Supreme Court ruling invalidated key IEEPA-based tariffs that were intended as the primary funding source, while annual tariff collections remain well below the hundreds of billions required for broad payments to adults or households. No White House legislation has advanced, a related House bill remains in committee, and administration statements have stressed the need for congressional approval without firm timelines. With only weeks remaining before the market's resolution date, these fiscal, legal, and procedural constraints have produced near-certain trader positioning. Late-session reconciliation, new tariff authorities, or rapid revenue growth could still shift the outcome, though all face significant procedural and timing hurdles.
規則
如果特朗普政府在 2026年12月31日 下午11:59 ET 前正式設立關稅紅利／退稅（例如簽署聯邦立法或採取行政行動），此市場將以「是」結算。否則，此市場將以「否」結算。 在本市場的時間範圍內簽署成為法律的任何法案，或在此期間採取的任何行政行動，均符合條件，無論該法律或行動何時生效。 向任何一類美國個人納稅人發放的任何金額付款均符合條件，前提是該付款明確主要歸因於關稅收入，而非例行的退稅或稅額抵免。 判定依據將是可信報導所形成的共識。
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