- 美國會在 2026 年入侵墨西哥嗎？2¢
Tensions in U.S.-Mexico security cooperation, centered on cartel activity and fentanyl flows, have produced recent diplomatic friction and limited border deployments, yet both governments continue coordinated operations that have driven southwest encounters to historic lows. Mexican officials have repeatedly rejected any U.S. military presence on sovereign territory, while U.S. actions remain confined to enhanced patrols, drone restrictions, and joint training rather than cross-border strikes. This pattern of managed pressure alongside deep economic interdependence under frameworks like USMCA underpins trader consensus that no invasion will occur in 2026. Realistic shifts could stem from major border incidents, abrupt policy reversals, or rapid escalation in cartel violence, though current evidence shows no trajectory toward full-scale intervention.
規則
如果美國在 2026年12月31日 下午11:59 ET 前發動軍事攻勢，意圖控制墨西哥任何部分的陸地領土，此市場將判定為「是」。否則，此市場將以「否」結算。 就本市場而言，在市場建立時由墨西哥或美國事實上控制的土地，將視為該國的主權領土。 本市場的結算依據將是可信報導所形成的共識。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。